Screen Shot 2015-03-03 at 10.18.29

Supreme Asset chasing Yes Tom up the home straight at Ayr last time out

Supreme Asset runs in the 4.50 at Newcastle today in what looks like another tight handicap.

The 0-130 contest will be run over two and a half miles on Good to Soft going and Supreme asset will have to build on his recent second at Ayr if he is to land the spoils today.

Bruce and I will be making the long trip North this morning and we will be hoping to see our horse re-establish himself as a decent chaser with another solid performance following some indifferent runs earlier in the season.

The opposition is strong. Supreme asset faces 6 rivals today and not a single one of them can be ruled out. Likely favourite is Montoya’s Son for Keith Dalgleish who is seeking a 4-timer after victories at Sedgefield, Carlisle and here at Newcastle in October and November last year. If he is in the same form after a 3 month break he will take a lot of beating but those victories have seen him climb the handicap and he now races off a mark some 23lbs higher than the first of those wins.

Top weight Final Assault did not run well a couple of weeks ago at Haydock but prior to that had won a 0-120 chase at Bangor and was only beaten 4 lengths in his attempt to follow up in a 3 runner 0-135 contest at Ayr. He has been generally consistent but is still 9lbs higher than he was at Bangor.

Trust Thomas deserves a change of fortune. After winning here at Newcastle in November, he has since filled the runner up spot on 4 consecutive occasions! He is bound to be there or thereabouts while Categorical is turned out quickly again after finishing second to Tiptoeaway at Doncaster on Friday. If that run didn’t take too much out of him, he could easily go one better.

Bottom weight, Ballymoat, has just 10st 13lb to carry and showed he is capable of winning races at Southwell in December. Two placed efforts since then may suggest that the handicapper has his measure but he has now been eased a couple of pounds and has to be considered. Finally, Mr Syntax may well be the least fancied of today’s runners but he has not been seen out since last June so I have no doubt he will be fresh and ready to go.

That brings us to Supreme Asset. He has not been the model of consistency this season and one or two jumping mistakes have crept in. There is no doubt that he has been running in slightly better company and the ease in grade may well help his cause. Two and a half miles on Good to Soft ground could be right up his street and, if he gets his jumping together again, we are confident that he will be in the shake up. Brian Harding takes the ride for the first time and, due to our horses recent inconsistency, he is likely to be a decent price. Just a pity there are only seven runners as I would have said he represented excellent each way value at around 7/1.

In summary, we will be very pleased but not surprised if he wins.